When you actually run the numbers, it is very grim. https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727 … by @Plinz
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Replying to @IntuitMachine @Plinz
I have to object to
@Plinz's framing here, but agree with the core of his point. Both containment and mitigation flatten the curve. The goal of flattening the curve is very much on target, and all you've done is call out how much bigger the problem potentially is.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
That's important. The scale of the problem indicates how very important a role containment plays. The more we flatten the early part of the curve, the more effective we are at every stage. The division between containment and mitigation is itself misleading.
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At every stage, whether we label it containment or mitigation, it is about reducing the rate of transmission as much as possible with the resources we have. A community practicing social distancing, when a case enters, will see a slower spread.
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And thus, local facilities will overload less. One thing not represented in these curves is that local peaks do not coincide. You need a multi-compartment model here. Containment gives localities more time to prepare. Slowing spread within gives them lower peaks.
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Replying to @BobKerns @IntuitMachine
The point is that the only way to meaningfully slow the spread is containment.
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Replying to @Plinz @IntuitMachine
I know what you're trying to do, but my problem is with the "only". Your point is that containment is essential—keeping it from spreading between communities. But it is important to pair it with the rest of the measures.
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What is driving the "transition" from containment to mitigation is resources. At some point we lack the resources to trace contacts and quarantine. The gain from doing so also declines sharply when those same contacts are likely also exposed via other paths.
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There was never a transition. Rational governments contain from the start, the others once they experience Italian conditions.
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Replying to @Plinz @IntuitMachine
Right, that's why I put "transition" in quotation marks, and this is the part we are 1000% in agreement on.
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