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Plinz's profile
Joscha Bach
Joscha Bach
Joscha Bach
@Plinz

Tweets

Joscha Bach

@Plinz

FOLLOWS YOU. Artificial Intelligence, Cognitive Architectures, Computation. The goal is integrity, not conformity.

San Francisco, CA
bach.ai
Joined April 2009

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    1. Carlos E. Perez‏ @IntuitMachine Mar 13
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      When you actually run the numbers, it is very grim. https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727 … by @Plinz

      6 replies 4 retweets 17 likes
    2. Bob Kerns‏ @BobKerns Mar 13
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      Replying to @IntuitMachine @Plinz

      I have to object to @Plinz's framing here, but agree with the core of his point. Both containment and mitigation flatten the curve. The goal of flattening the curve is very much on target, and all you've done is call out how much bigger the problem potentially is.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Bob Kerns‏ @BobKerns Mar 13
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      Replying to @BobKerns @IntuitMachine @Plinz

      That's important. The scale of the problem indicates how very important a role containment plays. The more we flatten the early part of the curve, the more effective we are at every stage. The division between containment and mitigation is itself misleading.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Bob Kerns‏ @BobKerns Mar 13
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      Replying to @BobKerns @IntuitMachine @Plinz

      At every stage, whether we label it containment or mitigation, it is about reducing the rate of transmission as much as possible with the resources we have. A community practicing social distancing, when a case enters, will see a slower spread.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Bob Kerns‏ @BobKerns Mar 13
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      Replying to @BobKerns @IntuitMachine @Plinz

      And thus, local facilities will overload less. One thing not represented in these curves is that local peaks do not coincide. You need a multi-compartment model here. Containment gives localities more time to prepare. Slowing spread within gives them lower peaks.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Mar 13
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      Replying to @BobKerns @IntuitMachine

      The point is that the only way to meaningfully slow the spread is containment.

      6:39 PM - 13 Mar 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Bob Kerns‏ @BobKerns Mar 13
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          Replying to @Plinz @IntuitMachine

          I know what you're trying to do, but my problem is with the "only". Your point is that containment is essential—keeping it from spreading between communities. But it is important to pair it with the rest of the measures.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Bob Kerns‏ @BobKerns Mar 13
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          Replying to @BobKerns @Plinz @IntuitMachine

          What is driving the "transition" from containment to mitigation is resources. At some point we lack the resources to trace contacts and quarantine. The gain from doing so also declines sharply when those same contacts are likely also exposed via other paths.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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