Joscha, does "containment" in your article mean cutting off regions in the country, or social distancing? Or something else? (If the former, it seems to imply that millions of people in China and Korea are already dead?)
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It means rigorous testing and contact tracing, and once that fails, locking down all regions with uncontrolled spreading, until individual cases can be traced again. I don't see why that implies that millions are dead already?
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Making clear to policy makers that we need effective measures (full lockdowns, disinfection of public infrastructure, contact tracing and door-to-door testing) or more people will needlessly die, and pushing the needle of public opinion to give policy makers room to act.
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Thanks Joscha! I ran the same numbers myself and was thinking of writing a similar thing. This is a wonderful service to the world so that we don't make perhaps the most tragic decision in human history.
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The most tragic decision in human history? That must have been the industrial revolution...
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The curve not a lie. The dotted line is a lie. We should
#makeventilators and#flattenthecurve at the same time, with great urgency. -
To be exact, the message that we can push the curve below the dotted line using mitigation measure is a lie. (The curve is also not normally distributed.)
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Great article! What specific containment measures would you suggest beyond the ones already employed?
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Identify crisis regions where people must stay home, prohibit nonessential travel, close retail/restaurants, organize food/med supply, childcare for essential workers, distribute/enforce PPE, suspend evictions, shelter homeless, test food workers, use phones for contact tracing
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