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Plinz's profile
Joscha Bach
Joscha Bach
Joscha Bach
@Plinz

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Joscha Bach

@Plinz

FOLLOWS YOU. Artificial Intelligence, Cognitive Architectures, Computation. The goal is integrity, not conformity.

San Francisco, CA
bach.ai
Joined April 2009

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    Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Mar 13
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    Back-of-the-envelope calculation about why "Flattening the Curve" cannot work in practice, and containment is necessary.https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727 …

    5:10 PM - 13 Mar 2020
    • 163 Retweets
    • 374 Likes
    • Hyemi Song /=base=/lib/jose.hoon Mehrad Mahmoudian hip.eponymouse marcus frean Den Relly MNWH Dominik Wisser Jon Ippolito
    41 replies 163 retweets 374 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Kaj Sotala‏ @xuenay Mar 13
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        Replying to @Plinz

        "They mean to tell you that we can get away without severe lockdowns as we are currently observing them in China and Italy." I thought that 'flatten the curve' was an argument for why severe lockdowns (among other things) make sense.

        2 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
      3. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Mar 13
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        Replying to @xuenay

        The US is still not committed to containment. I don't think that it is possible to meaningfully flatten the curve without containment measures.

        3 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
      4. 8 more replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom Mar 13
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        Replying to @Plinz

        You seem to be confused about the difference between containment and mitigation. Containment involves aggressive contact tracing and targeted isolation of exposed individuals. Mitigation involves social distancing measures: closing down schools, banning large gatherings, etc.

        4 replies 36 retweets 230 likes
      3. Samuel V. Scarpino‏ @svscarpino Mar 13
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        Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @Plinz

        Samuel V. Scarpino Retweeted Samuel V. Scarpino

        His estimates of the total infected is also almost certainly, way, way, way off (even in the no intervention scenario, which is know isn't true any more because govs are moving in the US),https://twitter.com/svscarpino/status/1238621162151776256?s=20 …

        Samuel V. Scarpino added,

        Samuel V. Scarpino @svscarpino
        Replying to @SimonDeDeo @Plinz
        Our estimates, without any interventions are 5-40% of the population. In China, after accounting for underreporting, Hubei province had between 0.5-1% infected. Outside Hubei provinces were all <<0.1%.
        1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
      4. 7 more replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Richard‏ @raelianer Mar 13
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        Replying to @Plinz

        How about flattening the curve in the way that you keep it at just about the capacity of the medical system? You could keep the tails shorter and maybe this is why the reaction is not so strong at first. Apart from that the numbers from China can no longer be trusted.

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Mar 13
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        Replying to @raelianer

        You did not read the article

        2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
      4. 6 more replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Jeremy Rubin‏ @JeremyRubin Mar 14
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        Replying to @Plinz

        Also missing from your model: flatten the curve means flattening the curve and every derivative of it. These curves are not smooth, they are really spiky (e.g. people getting sick at a conference or cruise). Every derivative also has bottle neck thresholds and capacities.

        2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
      3. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Mar 14
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        Replying to @JeremyRubin

        It's not even a model. I just try to show why the intuition that people get from the "flatten the curve" meme is misleading.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. 1 more reply
      1. New conversation
      2. Liberté, égalité, anxiété‏ @MagpieMcGraw Mar 13
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        Replying to @Plinz

        Which do you think is more risky: ordering groceries online, or going to a big grocery store?

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Erik "25 45"‏ @GoodBrain Mar 13
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        Replying to @MagpieMcGraw @Plinz

        risky to whom?

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. 3 more replies

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