"They mean to tell you that we can get away without severe lockdowns as we are currently observing them in China and Italy." I thought that 'flatten the curve' was an argument for why severe lockdowns (among other things) make sense.
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The US is still not committed to containment. I don't think that it is possible to meaningfully flatten the curve without containment measures.
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You seem to be confused about the difference between containment and mitigation. Containment involves aggressive contact tracing and targeted isolation of exposed individuals. Mitigation involves social distancing measures: closing down schools, banning large gatherings, etc.
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His estimates of the total infected is also almost certainly, way, way, way off (even in the no intervention scenario, which is know isn't true any more because govs are moving in the US),https://twitter.com/svscarpino/status/1238621162151776256?s=20 …
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How about flattening the curve in the way that you keep it at just about the capacity of the medical system? You could keep the tails shorter and maybe this is why the reaction is not so strong at first. Apart from that the numbers from China can no longer be trusted.
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You did not read the article
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Also missing from your model: flatten the curve means flattening the curve and every derivative of it. These curves are not smooth, they are really spiky (e.g. people getting sick at a conference or cruise). Every derivative also has bottle neck thresholds and capacities.
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It's not even a model. I just try to show why the intuition that people get from the "flatten the curve" meme is misleading.
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Which do you think is more risky: ordering groceries online, or going to a big grocery store?
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risky to whom?
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