The dynamic model predicts (in a weak mitigation scenario) that 40% get infected and 1.4% critically ill. They assume hospital stays of 4 days (non ICU) and 14 days (ICU).
Confirmed cases include mild and asymptomatic cases. China is testing everyone who may have gotten in contact with the infection.
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A new CDC model has different scenarios assuming "hospitalization rate would be either 3 percent or 12". James Lawler's best guess is 5% hospitalised, 2% ICU, 1% on ventilators. For any of these assumptions, the predictions are grim.https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html …
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Randomly found your exchange but I can’t help but applaud seeing two people have a civil argument on the internet. Literally one of the most refreshing things I’ve seen in weeks.
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