Assumptions: 55% (mean betwen 40% and 70%) get infected, 6% critically ill, length of treatment 30 days, normal distribution over 300 days. Note that in reality, this curve is not a normal distribution, but strongly skewed to the left and much more long-tailed.
The model allows setting almost all assumptions you want, I just don’t think the defaults are very good.
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OK, but note that 6-8% critically ill (e.g. https://twitter.com/Chenbariatrics1/status/1238323721451917312 …) applies to confirmed cases, excluding many mild and symptomatic infections.
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Confirmed cases include mild and asymptomatic cases. China is testing everyone who may have gotten in contact with the infection.
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