Assumptions: 55% (mean betwen 40% and 70%) get infected, 6% critically ill, length of treatment 30 days, normal distribution over 300 days. Note that in reality, this curve is not a normal distribution, but strongly skewed to the left and much more long-tailed.
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You'd have to ask the authors. But generally it's harder to argue against a conclusion that's based on conservative / optimistic assumptions.
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Generally it’s irresponsible to argue only in the optimistic direction when facing deadly risks
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