Assumptions: 55% (mean betwen 40% and 70%) get infected, 6% critically ill, length of treatment 30 days, normal distribution over 300 days. Note that in reality, this curve is not a normal distribution, but strongly skewed to the left and much more long-tailed.
I was trying to sketch a totally unmitigated scenario. I will delete the original tweet to avoid people citing it at as a realistic simulation or so.
-
-
Btw, the current vision of CDC, UK and Germany is still that mitigation will only lead to a delay, but not reduce total infections (40%-70%). It will also not reduce the number of critically ill patients (5%-6%) or the average duration of their ICU stays (afaik ~4 weeks).
-
Yes. I think the model I linked to is (intentionally) based on somewhat optimistic assumptions.
- 8 more replies
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.