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Plinz's profile
Joscha Bach
Joscha Bach
Joscha Bach
@Plinz

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Joscha Bach

@Plinz

FOLLOWS YOU. Artificial Intelligence, Cognitive Architectures, Computation. The goal is integrity, not conformity.

San Francisco, CA
bach.ai
Joined April 2009

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    Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Mar 12
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    This desirable grey curve below the capacity limit of the health care system that you all have seen? It is nonsense. We have ~30000 available ICU beds. Even with five times as many, we run out as soon as 1% of the US population is infected in the same month.pic.twitter.com/ZULpDh1FhV

    1:37 PM - 12 Mar 2020
    • 16 Retweets
    • 75 Likes
    • Timm Walker Florian Mahner Davis Brown Meghan Kane Ferath Kherif martin bauer william o'tule Malcolm 🌎cean Dwarkesh Patel
    10 replies 16 retweets 75 likes
      1. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Mar 12
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        Please call your local mayor's office, talk to your elected representatives, and your friends in the dod. The only alternative to containment is that millions of people will die. Lock down all populated areas with uncontrolled community spreading. Every day increases the cost.

        3 replies 5 retweets 34 likes
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      2. Johnny Cache‏ @speakerjohnash Mar 12
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        Replying to @Plinz

        The American Hospital Association recently projected that 1% of patients would require ICU beds. If there are 327.2 million people in the US and 1% are infected and 1% of infected require ICU care that would amount to 32720 beds needed. Could you clarify your math?pic.twitter.com/GaNaUYFXT2

        2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Joe Henriod‏ @joehenriod Mar 12
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        Replying to @speakerjohnash @Plinz

        What are we basing a 1% infection rate on?

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. 5 more replies
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      2. Kevin Lacker‏ @lacker Mar 13
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        Replying to @Plinz

        I think you (and the Vox graphic) are missing that flattening the curve should also reduce its overall volume. If you reduce the multiplicative factor at which the virus spreads, you also acquire herd immunity faster. Your conclusion might still hold though.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Kevin Lacker‏ @lacker Mar 13
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        Replying to @lacker @Plinz

        Yeah, actually your argument seems totally correct to me. My nitpick doesn't change the overall math. Herd immunity can only really be achieved this year with millions of preventable deaths? Yikes. But it doesn't seem like containment has any hope of working in the near future.

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. 3 more replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Fabian Hachenberg‏ @fHachenberg Mar 13
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        Replying to @Plinz

        What exactly is the issue with the image? It doesn't have numbers on the ordinate. So it's merely a conceptual visualization. And a good one imho.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Mar 13
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        Replying to @fHachenberg

        I have tried to spell out the argumenthttps://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727 …

        0 replies 3 retweets 6 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Mike Frison‏ @renntv Mar 12
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        Replying to @Plinz

        Mike Frison Retweeted Mike Frison

        Germany is running at 48% growth.https://twitter.com/renntv/status/1238190969532661766 …

        Mike Frison added,

        Mike Frison @renntv
        #Coronavirus Prognose aus Sicht eines Daten-Analysten: 10. März: 1.597 11. März: 2.369 Tägliche Wachstumsrate: 48 % Verdopplungszeit: 1,8 Tage rechnerisch 10.000 am 14. März 2020 100.000 am 20. März 2020 1 Million am 26. März 2020
        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Mar 12
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        Replying to @renntv

        At this point, the increase in cases is mostly a function of testing capacity and existing infections becoming symptomatic.

        2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
      4. 2 more replies
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      2. Andrés Gómez Emilsson‏ @algekalipso Mar 13
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        Replying to @Plinz @zackmdavis

        Completely agree with you here - I sensed that the image was fishy from day 1. Now - I also think you should consider the costs of lockdown now, because if you only have a set number of weeks to lock, perhaps later is better: https://www.facebook.com/algekalipso/posts/2850373818388090 … (what do you think of that?)

        2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Kevin Lacker‏ @lacker Mar 13
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        Replying to @algekalipso @Plinz @zackmdavis

        we just don't have only a set number of weeks to lock. if we lock down for three weeks, and at the end of those three weeks there are people dying in the street for lack of ventilators, we're gonna stay on lockdown. that's basically joscha's prediction.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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