Please call your local mayor's office, talk to your elected representatives, and your friends in the dod. The only alternative to containment is that millions of people will die. Lock down all populated areas with uncontrolled community spreading. Every day increases the cost.
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The American Hospital Association recently projected that 1% of patients would require ICU beds. If there are 327.2 million people in the US and 1% are infected and 1% of infected require ICU care that would amount to 32720 beds needed. Could you clarify your math?pic.twitter.com/GaNaUYFXT2
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What are we basing a 1% infection rate on?
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I think you (and the Vox graphic) are missing that flattening the curve should also reduce its overall volume. If you reduce the multiplicative factor at which the virus spreads, you also acquire herd immunity faster. Your conclusion might still hold though.
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Yeah, actually your argument seems totally correct to me. My nitpick doesn't change the overall math. Herd immunity can only really be achieved this year with millions of preventable deaths? Yikes. But it doesn't seem like containment has any hope of working in the near future.
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What exactly is the issue with the image? It doesn't have numbers on the ordinate. So it's merely a conceptual visualization. And a good one imho.
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I have tried to spell out the argumenthttps://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727 …
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Germany is running at 48% growth.https://twitter.com/renntv/status/1238190969532661766 …
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At this point, the increase in cases is mostly a function of testing capacity and existing infections becoming symptomatic.
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Completely agree with you here - I sensed that the image was fishy from day 1. Now - I also think you should consider the costs of lockdown now, because if you only have a set number of weeks to lock, perhaps later is better: https://www.facebook.com/algekalipso/posts/2850373818388090 … (what do you think of that?)
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we just don't have only a set number of weeks to lock. if we lock down for three weeks, and at the end of those three weeks there are people dying in the street for lack of ventilators, we're gonna stay on lockdown. that's basically joscha's prediction.
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