Here's a very simple back-of-envelope calculation that gives some idea of the effect of delaying measures on the number of people ill with coronavirus at any one time. Suppose that a population has size N and the number of people getting the disease on day n is C^n, 1/
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No, we still have a choice to dramatically reduce the number of deaths, or rather our countries will decide that they must do everything they can to stop the dying. Every day makes this decision more expensive and less effective.
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Exactly this. I have no idea what Germany (or US) are waiting for. For Germany it can’t even be the “far away effect”. We see what happens in Italy almost in front of our doorstep (globally speaking)
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Medical advice (not public) is almost certainly that we need to allow it to spread so as to improve immunity long-term against future mutations of the virus. Otherwise we'll just be here again in future years.
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Been thinking a lot about what the endgame is going to look like for all this.
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1% lower population, reduced house prices, slightly higher affluence. Modest alleviation of climate change.
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