Here is what I don't understand: Wuhan was locked down at a few hundred confirmed cases, way too late and expensive, leading to 68K cases and 3K deaths. China learned the lesson and shut down other places much earlier, leading to <1.5K cases and <20 deaths in each. Why do we do?
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Lockdowns enable the concentration of medical resources and military support into few regions (yes, we will probably need the national guard and the military) instead of spreading the crisis into every corner of the country.
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There are tons of smart people who observed China, Singapore and Italy and can see the writing on the wall. MIT and Stanford have stopped classes and gatherings. Google, Twitter and Amazon have sent their employees home. Is nobody in the administration paying any attention?
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Why is the TSA infecting passengers at airports? Why are thousands of homeless still sleeping and coughing in the streets of San Francisco's city center? Why are testkits still limited? Why are we out of PPE? Why are Alex Azar and Robert Redfield still in charge of anything?
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Why is the Surgeon General lying about the efficacy of masks? Why does most of the press think it's more important to fight a War on Panic than to warn and inform about what's happening? Is there really no adult in the room?
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Can you really contain it at that point? For 18 months? Not a single person must remain undetected. I think you might be able to achieve that with total surveillance, but what will be the consequences?
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Of course. If we don't contain it, 40%–80% may get infected, the resulting death rate will be 5%–6% (due to lack of medical resources), and 6.5M–16M people will die in the US. We will not let that happen. China, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore show that it can be stomped out.
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Lockdowns are politically much more expensive when it's not yet obvious to your average ignorant-of-exponentials citizen that they're necessary.
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