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Plinz's profile
Joscha Bach
Joscha Bach
Joscha Bach
@Plinz

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Joscha Bach

@Plinz

FOLLOWS YOU. Artificial Intelligence, Cognitive Architectures, Computation. The goal is integrity, not conformity.

San Francisco, CA
bach.ai
Joined April 2009

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    1. If you meet 60+-year-olds, quarantine like one‏ @poiThePoi Mar 1
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      5-10% ICU rates on a 1-week delay. (Average Chinese incubation was 5.5 days you won’t see it in a hospital even in “bad cold” form) 1-2% mortality on a 2-3 week delay. Call it 2. Tripling every week. Start with 5 cases in Week 1. The second week of January. 5/0/0

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    2. If you meet 60+-year-olds, quarantine like one‏ @poiThePoi Mar 1
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      15/0/0 45/1/0 225/6/0 675/17/0-1 2000/50/3 It’s been a month and a half and you still have 50 cases of “a bad flu” in the entire country, 3 deaths, and we’re *here* give or take a week. If China hadn’t spotted it, I’m not sure we’d notice.

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    3. If you meet 60+-year-olds, quarantine like one‏ @poiThePoi Mar 1
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      6K/150/9 18K/450/27 54K/1300/80 This is mid-late March and the point at which I’d pull the trigger on getting at-risk relatives inside… 150K/4K/250 450K/12K/750 1.3M/36K/2250… This is mid-April, and the point at which I’d bet they shut down flights give or take a week.

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    4. If you meet 60+-year-olds, quarantine like one‏ @poiThePoi Mar 1
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      Give or take here is the point at which your medical system starts to quietly explode, so start inching up the death rate for the next couple of weeks to 2% or so. 4 Million/110K/8K 12 Million/330K/25K 36 Million/1 Million/80K 110 Million/3 Million/240K

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    5. If you meet 60+-year-olds, quarantine like one‏ @poiThePoi Mar 1
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      And that’s basically pandemic by mid-May. Cut it off at say 160 Million 160 Million/8-9 Million/360K 160 Million/10-11 Million/1.1 Million 160 Million/12 Million/3 Million dead. And then it burns out somewhere near mid-June.

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    6. If you meet 60+-year-olds, quarantine like one‏ @poiThePoi Mar 1
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      If you ever pull a China and shut it all down, figure another doubling to quadrupling in cases as entire families get it, and of course, serious catch-up as ICU and deaths are on a delay. And then do China at x8 and suddenly you get Comrade Xi shutting down China for a month.

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    7. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Mar 2
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      Replying to @poiThePoi

      Outside of Manhattan, US has far less concentration than China and relies more on cars than public transport. Better plumbing and more fresh air, too. I expect the doubling time to go down once the increasing numbers get everyone's attention and schools close.

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      Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Mar 2
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      Replying to @Plinz @poiThePoi

      I think that once hospitals are full, emergency response, national guard and military are going to step in. I am more worried about hovering at less than a million cases until June, summer weather dampens infection, the measures relax and autumn gets us really bad.

      11:52 AM - 2 Mar 2020
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