5-10% ICU rates on a 1-week delay. (Average Chinese incubation was 5.5 days you won’t see it in a hospital even in “bad cold” form) 1-2% mortality on a 2-3 week delay. Call it 2. Tripling every week. Start with 5 cases in Week 1. The second week of January. 5/0/0
-
Show this thread
-
15/0/0 45/1/0 225/6/0 675/17/0-1 2000/50/3 It’s been a month and a half and you still have 50 cases of “a bad flu” in the entire country, 3 deaths, and we’re *here* give or take a week. If China hadn’t spotted it, I’m not sure we’d notice.
2 replies 4 retweets 14 likesShow this thread -
6K/150/9 18K/450/27 54K/1300/80 This is mid-late March and the point at which I’d pull the trigger on getting at-risk relatives inside… 150K/4K/250 450K/12K/750 1.3M/36K/2250… This is mid-April, and the point at which I’d bet they shut down flights give or take a week.
1 reply 2 retweets 13 likesShow this thread -
Give or take here is the point at which your medical system starts to quietly explode, so start inching up the death rate for the next couple of weeks to 2% or so. 4 Million/110K/8K 12 Million/330K/25K 36 Million/1 Million/80K 110 Million/3 Million/240K
1 reply 2 retweets 12 likesShow this thread -
And that’s basically pandemic by mid-May. Cut it off at say 160 Million 160 Million/8-9 Million/360K 160 Million/10-11 Million/1.1 Million 160 Million/12 Million/3 Million dead. And then it burns out somewhere near mid-June.
1 reply 2 retweets 14 likesShow this thread -
If you ever pull a China and shut it all down, figure another doubling to quadrupling in cases as entire families get it, and of course, serious catch-up as ICU and deaths are on a delay. And then do China at x8 and suddenly you get Comrade Xi shutting down China for a month.
1 reply 0 retweets 11 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @poiThePoi
Outside of Manhattan, US has far less concentration than China and relies more on cars than public transport. Better plumbing and more fresh air, too. I expect the doubling time to go down once the increasing numbers get everyone's attention and schools close.
2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
I think that once hospitals are full, emergency response, national guard and military are going to step in. I am more worried about hovering at less than a million cases until June, summer weather dampens infection, the measures relax and autumn gets us really bad.
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.