5-10% ICU rates on a 1-week delay. (Average Chinese incubation was 5.5 days you won’t see it in a hospital even in “bad cold” form) 1-2% mortality on a 2-3 week delay. Call it 2. Tripling every week. Start with 5 cases in Week 1. The second week of January. 5/0/0
Outside of Manhattan, US has far less concentration than China and relies more on cars than public transport. Better plumbing and more fresh air, too. I expect the doubling time to go down once the increasing numbers get everyone's attention and schools close.
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I think that once hospitals are full, emergency response, national guard and military are going to step in. I am more worried about hovering at less than a million cases until June, summer weather dampens infection, the measures relax and autumn gets us really bad.
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I figure that once you notice a million, 5-10 Million is baked in. And 5-10 Million is risky enough I want Dad and Grandma inside a month *before* that.
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