Genetic analysis suggests that COVID19 has been circulating in Washington since early February. Which would suggest, in turn, that the actual mortality rate of the virus is much smaller than the ~2% we currently see. (Yes?)https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1233970271318503426 …
How many cases did SK have three weeks ago (when the current fatalities became symptomatic)?
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Yes, Simon we need some 3 week+ longitudinal case series studies of say, a 1000 person random cohort in China (and SK for comparison). Death rate lags behind infection rate by approx 3 weeks. China CFR is currently >3.5% of diagnosed cases
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