Data from South Korea (most robust testing regime out there so far) suggests mortality rate may be as low as <1% (1766 cases, 13 deaths) Countries with higher reported mortality may be missing many untested asymptomatic carriers, therefore exaggerating the death rate
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Replying to @RealFacelessMan
Too early to tell. Most people die after 3 weeks, at which point South Korea had very few cases. Aylward thinks that the Chinese numbers are largely correct due to their massive testing efforts, i.e. he doesn't expect subclinical cases to bring down mortality by a large amount.
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Replying to @Plinz
"if you look at the mortality rate of this disease outside of China, right now we're looking at around 0.5%" ~ Dr Redfield, CDC Director (watch from 1:50:31) cc:
@Whey_standard@varadmehtahttps://youtu.be/uHcMV6-nJ_E?t=6631 …2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Yes, right now. The world is still a month behind China.
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Diamond Princess is also another good test case though. 705 cases, 4 deaths. That's sub 1%. And that's a cruise with avg age higher than the general population.
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Cruise ships are 1/4 to 1/3 young, healthy crew, and they do not allow visibly ill people to board. Statistics from industry show cruisers over 70 are about 14% of the total, roughly equivalent to the US population (17% in 2010, 13% <65 plus 4% 65-70) https://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-09.pdf …pic.twitter.com/tLepKADumO
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Those stats point to avg passenger age around 50-59 years, compared to avg age of 38 in the US
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Probably healthier lungs, better rested and better nutrition than the average Wuhanese.
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