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Plinz's profile
Joscha Bach
Joscha Bach
Joscha Bach
@Plinz

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Joscha Bach

@Plinz

FOLLOWS YOU. Artificial Intelligence, Cognitive Architectures, Computation. The goal is integrity, not conformity.

San Francisco, CA
bach.ai
Joined April 2009

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    1. Ben Sixsmith‏ @BDSixsmith Feb 25
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      Yay.pic.twitter.com/9T90yPt2EC

      14 replies 8 retweets 95 likes
      Show this thread
    2. oumuamua‏ @_oumuamua Feb 25
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      Replying to @BDSixsmith

      The CFR is only being revised upwards (by current stats it’s 3.3%). It may well finish in the 5-10% range. The only thing more deadly in history is the Black Death.

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    3. Spotted Toad‏ @toad_spotted Feb 25
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      Replying to @_oumuamua @BDSixsmith

      I think the denominator there is dominated by who gets into Chinese (and in particular Wuhanese) hospitals, which is likely a subset of serious cases. the initial european cases before the Italian outbreak were almost exclusively mild, which suggests that a very large % are mild.

      1 reply 1 retweet 16 likes
    4. oumuamua‏ @_oumuamua Feb 25
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      Replying to @toad_spotted @BDSixsmith

      The WHO, as much as they can be trusted, have stated that they don’t believe there are many undetected asymptomatic or mild cases, which is positive for how China has managed to contained the spread, but negative as to how deadly it is.

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    5. Spotted Toad‏ @toad_spotted Feb 25
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      Replying to @_oumuamua @BDSixsmith

      Yeah, I saw that, I just don't think it's that credible. the very mildly ill woman from Shanghai who infected the 11 or so Germans (all also mild) just makes me skeptical

      2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
      Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Feb 25
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      Replying to @toad_spotted @_oumuamua @BDSixsmith

      80 percent of all cases are 'mild'. We don't know how many are asymptomatic. For the flu, it's about 14%. One case should not make you skeptical.

      12:58 PM - 25 Feb 2020
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      • MOURNING CROW PUNISHER Derek World's Greatest Dad: Aesthetic of Happy Family Ben Sixsmith
      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Spotted Toad‏ @toad_spotted Feb 25
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          Replying to @Plinz @_oumuamua @BDSixsmith

          It's not one case, it's China's whole behavior over the last tw months, and the WHO's sycophancy. I think there's lots to be worried about, and some of their clinical data seems very useful, but I don't believe what have anything to say about the overall scope of cases/infections

          2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
        3. oumuamua‏ @_oumuamua Feb 25
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          Replying to @toad_spotted @Plinz @BDSixsmith

          What is more troubling is WHO's praise of China's actions contradicts their previous recommendation not to shut down international air travel. Either China have convinced them of the need for drastic action in the past fortnight, or they are liars and, as you say, sycophants.

          0 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. oumuamua‏ @_oumuamua Feb 25
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          Replying to @Plinz @toad_spotted @BDSixsmith

          The more concerning thing is that 5% of cases are critical. Possible to cope with that at 75,000 detected cases. At a million, 10 million? The CFR goes non linear. It’s natural rate without ICU availability is probably between 5-10%

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Spotted Toad‏ @toad_spotted Feb 25
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          Replying to @_oumuamua @Plinz @BDSixsmith

          I agree

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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