Thread on deducing the death rate of 2019-nCoV: OK, I think I get it now, sorry that I have been so dense. China is relating the number of confirmed cases instead of the best estimates, which relates more to the testing capacity in the crisis region than to the incidence.
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Replying to @Plinz
Don’t you think the data collected on the cruise ship is the most reliable to make an estimate, aren’t most trials and probability based on the same scale?
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Replying to @nr1woman
I am not competent to answer that question! But I guess it depends on factors we don’t yet know, esp. the ways of transmission on the ship. I am sure that useful data can be gotten there, but it’s terrible to let the human experiment continue.
10:30 AM - 14 Feb 2020
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