Thread on deducing the death rate of 2019-nCoV: OK, I think I get it now, sorry that I have been so dense. China is relating the number of confirmed cases instead of the best estimates, which relates more to the testing capacity in the crisis region than to the incidence.
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It is clear that China, the WHO and the CDC must have statistically sound estimates of the number of estimated cases and the mortality rate (which you can probably determine by tracking a cohort of early infected cases). Why don’t they say so? They may all have good reasons.
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China (as perhaps our own governments as well) does not consider it prudent to report the full extent of China‘s present and our future humanitarian crisis. But at least they are letting us know the mortality estimate. It’s the pattern encoded into two meaningless numbers: 2.1%.
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If the disease is mainly killing people with diminished lung capacity, bear in mind that China has more smokers and severe air pollution, so the rate may be much lower in the US. All of the above are speculative thoughts. Don’t believe anything I say.
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You'd image the folks with decades of experience in public health / epidemiology would know better.
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I wonder if anybody has done standard election fraud analysis on province or lower level reported numbers. Benfords law etc
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Maybe smart people in China, like everywhere else, don’t take such bs jobs where you have to produce fake numbers.
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Or, possibly, people who were said to fake the numbers wouldn't like to conceal the truth but also couldn't disobey a direct order. Then they might have tried to do it as bluntly as possible, so that people might notice the pattern.
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