Technically, they are both flus, but the current discussion is about an uncontained strain with a mortality rate of ~0.1% and one that is possibly going to be uncontained and has a mortality rate that is probably somewhere between 1% and 10%.
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I can't fucking stand Taleb, but he's not far wrong this time. I don't think you even need to invoke fat-tailedness of a distribution in this case; the danger posed by the coronavirus could be a perfectly ordinary lognormal distribution, the point is the variance is large.
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I'm curious as to what he says, but not curious enough to waste time with a workaround to see past his block on my account. :-)
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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