The debate about Coronavirus is interesting as it misses a few important details: - Yes, it's only a ~2% death rate. - But, it's a ~25% patient in critical condition rate, requiring serious hospital treatment to survive. How good is your medical infrastructure?
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Replying to @GossiTheDog
The current “deaths” vs “recovered” numbers show a 40% death rate. How is this ~2% calculated?pic.twitter.com/qojSvJ2Xiq
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Replying to @MeFromBefore
that isn't the death rate. The death rate is infected vs dead, which is ~2%
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Replying to @GossiTheDog @MeFromBefore
You are dividing current deaths by current known infected, which seems bunk until new infections level off. If it takes a week between diagnosis and most deaths, your death rate is way north of 10%. (However, true numbers of infected may be off by a large factor.)
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Replying to @Plinz @MeFromBefore
I’m doing it the way the WHO and other bodies report it.
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In reverse, what was the # of infected 2 weeks ago (avg incubation period) vs dead now? Still not accurate, but wouldn't that be better?
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The relevant number would be the time span between diagnosis (~hospitalization) and death. If it's 8 days, the death rate among confirmed cases could be >15%. However, the number of infected may be >200K (based on rate among evacuees), many of which will be less serious cases.
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