The debate about Coronavirus is interesting as it misses a few important details: - Yes, it's only a ~2% death rate. - But, it's a ~25% patient in critical condition rate, requiring serious hospital treatment to survive. How good is your medical infrastructure?
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In reverse, what was the # of infected 2 weeks ago (avg incubation period) vs dead now? Still not accurate, but wouldn't that be better?
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The relevant number would be the time span between diagnosis (~hospitalization) and death. If it's 8 days, the death rate among confirmed cases could be >15%. However, the number of infected may be >200K (based on rate among evacuees), many of which will be less serious cases.
End of conversation
New conversation -
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Saying there is a 40% death rate would infer that per 10000 people infected, you expect 4000 of them to die, right? I don't think anyone is expecting that.
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