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Plinz's profile
Joscha Bach
Joscha Bach
Joscha Bach
@Plinz

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Joscha Bach

@Plinz

FOLLOWS YOU. Artificial Intelligence, Cognitive Architectures, Computation. The goal is integrity, not conformity.

San Francisco, CA
bach.ai
Joined April 2009

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    Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz 16h16 hours ago
    • Report Tweet

    Official Coronavirus cases include only those with a full diagnosis, which requires hospital admission and test kit, both of which are scarce in the crisis region. If people in Wuhan are infected at the same rate as foreign evacuees, then Wuhan alone has over 150K cases now.

    1:22 PM - 2 Feb 2020
    • 25 Retweets
    • 130 Likes
    • Literally An M551 Sheridan Kirubel Michel The Art Of Travel 🌎🌍🌏 Finn Jarred Ober Elizabeth Diomin S a g e Krishna Nimmagadda
    5 replies 25 retweets 130 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz 16h16 hours ago
        • Report Tweet

        I suppose that the death rate can be calculated based on a large enough sample, but not before everyone in the sample is dead or recovered, so it is too early to tell. If mild cases are undiagnosed, the death rate may be lower than 1%. If people are slow to die, it may over 5%.

        2 replies 2 retweets 24 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz 15h15 hours ago
        • Report Tweet

        Whoever says right now that this is less concerning than the flu knows either more than the epidemiologists, or has incredible trust in quarantine. More likely, they believe that reality is a social construct.

        3 replies 4 retweets 51 likes
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      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Carlos E. Perez  🧢‏ @IntuitMachine 16h16 hours ago
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @Plinz

        The numbers are indeed confusing. The 14,600 pertains to confirmed cases (tested for coronavirus). What is the 'recovery number' of 443? That's a very low number for 14,600 patients.

        3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz 15h15 hours ago
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @IntuitMachine

        Yes, we see pictures with individuals getting flowers and press shootings upon recovery, and heaps of body bags uncelebrated in front of the crematorium. We also see that China is taking extremely drastic steps for containment. This is more serious than the flu.

        0 replies 2 retweets 15 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Richard Chi‏ @01explorations 15h15 hours ago
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @Plinz

        By now, it is unlikely someone with mild symptoms would want to join the queues at #Wuhan hospitals. Given the trustworthy data from the evacuees, there must be lots of undetected #coronavirus cases in China.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Carlos E. Perez  🧢‏ @IntuitMachine 15h15 hours ago
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @01explorations @Plinz

        The official policy now is that those who report symptoms will be mandatory quarantined at designated locations. This should increase the under-reporting here.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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      2. vakibs‏ @vakibs 7h7 hours ago
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        Replying to @Plinz

        This also means the mortality rate is much lower?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. oumuamua‏ @_oumuamua 3h3 hours ago
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @vakibs @Plinz

        Not if their inability to deal with and test the volume of cases presenting with symptoms is matched by an inability to record the full number who is dying from this disease.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Tash heins‏ @tash81 1h1 hour ago
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        Replying to @Plinz

        😳😳😯😯😖😖😣😣

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