I suppose that the death rate can be calculated based on a large enough sample, but not before everyone in the sample is dead or recovered, so it is too early to tell. If mild cases are undiagnosed, the death rate may be lower than 1%. If people are slow to die, it may over 5%.
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Whoever says right now that this is less concerning than the flu knows either more than the epidemiologists, or has incredible trust in quarantine. More likely, they believe that reality is a social construct.
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The numbers are indeed confusing. The 14,600 pertains to confirmed cases (tested for coronavirus). What is the 'recovery number' of 443? That's a very low number for 14,600 patients.
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Yes, we see pictures with individuals getting flowers and press shootings upon recovery, and heaps of body bags uncelebrated in front of the crematorium. We also see that China is taking extremely drastic steps for containment. This is more serious than the flu.
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By now, it is unlikely someone with mild symptoms would want to join the queues at
#Wuhan hospitals. Given the trustworthy data from the evacuees, there must be lots of undetected#coronavirus cases in China. -
The official policy now is that those who report symptoms will be mandatory quarantined at designated locations. This should increase the under-reporting here.
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This also means the mortality rate is much lower?
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As I understand it, for many healthy people it may be asymptomatic, so we can expect extreme mortality in older cohorts and negligible one in younger ones. Old people are diagnosed&dying in Wuhan.
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What do u think about Thailand? I estimated 80 undetected infected Wuhan tourist there from flight data and EU cases. Is it the climate/humidity slowing contagion ?
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