I find "death of startups" extremely unconvincing, when interest rates are so close to zero and big tech companies are still hoarding cash.
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You could perhaps say that talent is more expensive, or that the knowledge barrier is a bit higher. But unconvinced FANG will do everything
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Most plausible is that "startup culture" is dying, due to the decline of capitalist youth. Possible, but then again there are always people
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Anyway, maybe excitement is maybe anti-correlated with new stuff happening. Facebook (2004), unicorns (2006-2011) were not "good times"
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It might be the case that the next wave is less concentrated in San Francisco. That'd be great for rent, but I don't even believe that.
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Replying to @asteroid_saku @sknthla
I think inputs (rent, labor) are becoming much more expensive, especially in SFBay. Real headwind vs 5 years ago.
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Market opportunities still overwhelmingly abundant. But real estate + immigration policy are now constricting enough to bend curve.
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Of course, they were constricting 5 years ago, too. But there was more slack then.
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On present trends, SFBay will, I think, go down as case study in one of greatest squanderings of economic opportunity in history.
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What can we do about that? It is also still one of the places that concentrates one of the greatest opportunities in history.
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