History is a way of compressing variable confidence facts about events and the motivated reasoning of past historians into models with almost no predictive power. I wonder how far we get if we ignore the narratives and try to compress the known facts with AI models instead?
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You mean as in a self-fulfilling prophecy kind of way? If a person knows about how some political process played out in history, he will see the parallels everywhere and act accordingly?
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I found that the people that deliberately change the course of events don’t seem to think a lot in terms of historical parallelism, but in terms of incentives and information arbitrage.
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