It seems that between 1920 and 1970, there was much more progress in physics, computer science, biology, psychiatry, psychology, aerospace and space engineering, education than there was in the last fifty years. Something broke.
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Let’s give an example of the idea. The theoretical max efficiency of solar panels is 42% (from the top of my head). Current commonly sold panels are about 19%. To expect more than 2x performance in an long or short term future is expecting the impossible.
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In a lot of the areas Joscha mentioned the easy things have been done. And we’re now sort of painting in the remaining area. Example: unless we are going to make a pill that rewires brain patterns, don’t expect much from psychiatric medication over what it already does.
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The number 0.8 (80%) was only chosen so it’s very obvious for our monkey brains that you’ll end up way past 1 if you expect it to double. “A number that can’t double” if you will. It’s not meant to be the exact number that applies to all the items in Josha’s list.
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The underlying assumption being that there is a bound and we're near it. What's the bound look like? Do we know everything at that point? Or do we just get to a point where we spin our wheels?
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Believing we are at 5% is optimism from another point of view
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