Either we are going through a period that is dramatically less predictable than usual, or economists may be poorly incentivized to make accurate predictions (which should also include properly estimated error margins).https://twitter.com/LHSummers/status/1104947777165914112 …
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I believe it to be almost humanly impossible to find data that oppose ones believes. Data should include every possible angle but if that angle doesn’t exist in the mind how would they know ?
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An econ journalist should not be identified with a particular belief about next year’s GDP, and if a source makes him/her look sheepish later on, downgrade the reliability estimate of that source. Is that too much to ask?
End of conversation
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