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Plinz's profile
Joscha Bach
Joscha Bach
Joscha Bach
@Plinz

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Joscha Bach

@Plinz

FOLLOWS YOU. Artificial Intelligence, Cognitive Architectures, Computation. The goal is integrity, not conformity.

San Francisco, CA
bach.ai
Joined April 2009

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    1. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz 30 Nov 2018
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      Replying to @EvanOLeary @hyperanomalous and

      Hm. Depends on what events you mean. We don’t have access to the ground truth, so events are parts of the model, and isomorphism between model and ground truth is going to carry uncertainty.

      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    2. Matt Guttman‏ @RealtimeAI 1 Dec 2018
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      Replying to @Plinz @EvanOLeary and

      Uncertainty is an epistemological fact. Probability is part of the study of uncertainty. If I flip a coin, what is the probability that the coin continues spinning for several seconds in mid-air and then disappears?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Adenosine Triphosphate‏ @hyperanomalous 1 Dec 2018
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      Replying to @RealtimeAI @Plinz and

      Extremely low, but nonzero. In fact, quantum mechanics has a formula for determining the probability of spontaneous quantum tunneling of a given object, which is what you're describing.

      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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    5. Brett Hall‏ @ToKTeacher 1 Dec 2018
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      Replying to @realTomHa @hyperanomalous and

      “Disappearing” needs unpacking (eliminate some ambiguities). Such a “prediction” would take a quantum physics expert in such calculations. *If* it’s physically possible there must be some measure of universes in which that happens. What proportion is the calculation you’re after.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Adenosine Triphosphate‏ @hyperanomalous 1 Dec 2018
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      Replying to @ToKTeacher @realTomHa and

      So far as I have been told, it would take longer than the universe is old, assuming you could flip the coin once per second, for the probability of such an event occurring to reach 1.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Brett Hall‏ @ToKTeacher 1 Dec 2018
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      Replying to @hyperanomalous @realTomHa and

      Probability can’t tell us what will actually occur in physical reality. So it’s not possible to know if a physically possible event has a probability of 1, afaik. @DavidDeutschOxf explains lots more about probability in this important talk on the topic:https://youtu.be/wfzSE4Hoxbc 

      2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
    8. Adenosine Triphosphate‏ @hyperanomalous 1 Dec 2018
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      Replying to @ToKTeacher @realTomHa and

      Probabilities tell us the likelihood of something occurring. A probability of 1 for an event occurring does not mean that event will occur: it's simply of measure of its likelihood of occurring. Probabilities are not guarantees.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Evan O'Leary‏ @EvanOLeary 1 Dec 2018
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      Replying to @hyperanomalous @ToKTeacher and

      A probability of 1 does mean the event will occur. It has no likelihood ratio. Where did you hear this? You say you are using "the mathematical definition"?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Adenosine Triphosphate‏ @hyperanomalous 1 Dec 2018
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      Replying to @EvanOLeary @ToKTeacher and

      No, it does not, because our universe is not a perfect reflection of the mathematics we use to model and understand it. A probability of 1 means that if our universe were a perfect reflection of mathematics, the event would occur. In our universe, it means it is highly likely.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz 1 Dec 2018
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      Replying to @hyperanomalous @EvanOLeary and

      I don’t think that you can prove that the mathematics that we use to describe the universe is by necessity different from the implementation of the universe. Conversely, we might be able to show that the possible models are very constrained by the possible mathematics.

      6:17 PM - 1 Dec 2018 from Ojai, CA
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        2. Adenosine Triphosphate‏ @hyperanomalous 1 Dec 2018
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          Replying to @realTomHa @Plinz and

          There is but one mathematics, in which there are different areas of specialization. Computational mathematics is but one part of a larger whole. There are proofs, which are not computationally based, and it these which provide the basis for computations.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Adenosine Triphosphate‏ @hyperanomalous 1 Dec 2018
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          Replying to @Plinz @EvanOLeary and

          1. The mathematical models we use make testable predictions. Our observations closely approximate those predictions, but do not exactly match them.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Adenosine Triphosphate‏ @hyperanomalous 1 Dec 2018
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          Replying to @hyperanomalous @Plinz and

          2. For example, our models predict that we should observe light bending around some gravitational well to an exact degree. Our observations show that light bends around the given gravitational well at almost, but not exactly, the predicted degree.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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