2. I understand "false" here to mean that a theory is false if any part of it is false, since a theory is referenced as a whole to explain the mechanisms behind some observed phenomenon.
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Actually the better argument against the probability of the event of refuting a currently unrefuted theory in the future is that the content of future arguments is currently unknown -> so is whether any of the ones that exist at some future time would refute some theory.
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Uncertainty is an epistemological fact. Probability is part of the study of uncertainty. If I flip a coin, what is the probability that the coin continues spinning for several seconds in mid-air and then disappears?
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Extremely low, but nonzero. In fact, quantum mechanics has a formula for determining the probability of spontaneous quantum tunneling of a given object, which is what you're describing.
End of conversation
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Physical states I guess. Just because even when there are many possible end states of some process, they're all actually realized in QM. There are things approximately similar to random variables but none in reality.
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