In the future, everyone will have a detailed psychological simulation model of all their interaction partners, which can predict their responses with high accuracy. Negotiations will be simulated and tuned by bouncing models off each other, later the simulation becomes recursive.
I used the example of chess because you normally cannot look at the decision tree exhaustively. You will have heuristics, but these can become almost arbitrarily good. There is no reason for paranoia if you do your statistics correctly.
-
-
Would the simulation succeed to create predictability in a non-cooperative setting? Imho every known heuristic (i.e. the underlying assumptions) could be used to fool the other side's simulation.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.