When people make predictions about the advent of human-level AI, I wonder how many of them have a set of timed milestones in mind, and how many just express their feeling about when the now ends and a shimmering sci fi future begins.
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Replying to @Plinz
StrongAI by 2038, and in 2037, people will still be saying it's a long way off. Lots of noise in data for near-term (8-12 years), but expect one of many required shifts to take place by then. Need to survive "war over personal data" first.
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Replying to @sd_marlow
How is that related? Do you think that it requires resources that DeepMind or Bezos does not have?
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Replying to @Plinz
If we think of Google and Facebook as the oil/gas/coal industry, then StrongAI is like clean energy. They are so focused on the resources they have, no, I don't think they will be the ones to pivot to something more promising.
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If we think of Google as energy industry, then strong AI is the promise of a cheap controlled fusion reactor (if you are competing with other suppliers, you cannot afford to not build one once it's possible). But strong AI is probably not controlled fusion, it's a planetary nuke.
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