98% latter
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Less than 2% people think deeply about ANYTHING.
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Wait wait...I just have to look for it in Ben Goertzel's and Ray Kurzweil's books.

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which would mean I can collapse your position to theirs; I agree that most people's position is collapsible to their sources
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Not that you're asking for it, but here's the set of 30 questions that currently make up our AI Milestones Question Series: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--aimilestones …
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StrongAI by 2038, and in 2037, people will still be saying it's a long way off. Lots of noise in data for near-term (8-12 years), but expect one of many required shifts to take place by then. Need to survive "war over personal data" first.
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How is that related? Do you think that it requires resources that DeepMind or Bezos does not have?
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The Gartner hype-cycle curve comes to mind. https://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/5-trends-emerge-in-gartner-hype-cycle-for-emerging-technologies-2018/ …
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Paradigm-shifting advances in knowledge are rarely prophesied by extrapolating timed milestones.
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AKA it’s intuitive emoting all the way down.
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