I am coming around to the idea of connecting political analyses to making actual bets. Which fraction of public claims about future developments or the results of implementing a policy measure would become more careful if the author would have to bet actual money on it?
The problem with futures that people only talk about is that they usually don't happen. The futures on which people make actual bets (for instance by performing actions that require actual resources and effort) tend to have some kind of evolutionary manifestation bonus.
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That sounds like Nassim Taleb (
@nntaleb)'s "Skin in the Game" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Uc4DI-BF28 …Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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This is why I always say I'm not a crystal ball futurist. I'm a roll up your sleeves futurist.
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I disagree though...since so many different people are talking about the future, some of them will be right about some versions of the future by default.
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