Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.

This is the legacy version of twitter.com. We will be shutting it down on June 1, 2020. Please switch to a supported browser, or disable the extension which masks your browser. You can see a list of supported browsers in our Help Center.

  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • About

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
Plinz's profile
Joscha Bach
Joscha Bach
Joscha Bach
@Plinz

Tweets

Joscha Bach

@Plinz

FOLLOWS YOU. Artificial Intelligence, Cognitive Architectures, Computation. The goal is integrity, not conformity.

San Francisco, CA
bach.ai
Joined April 2009

Tweets

  • © 2020 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Imprint
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz 18 Aug 2018
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation
      Replying to @dwindlinghandle

      My point was that your prior must be informed by the previously existing evidence. For instance, if you don't have absolute evidence that vaccines cannot cause autism, your prior should be that some autism may be caused by vaccines and some may be not.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz 18 Aug 2018
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation
      Replying to @Plinz

      Even with sampling the entire population, you probably cannot rule out that vaccines cause some autism. However, you may be able to quantify the probability of an upper bound (and compare that cost to the likely cost of not vaccinating).

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Dwindler‏ @dwindlinghandle 18 Aug 2018
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation
      Replying to @Plinz

      Even if different people choose different priors (A causes B, A may/may not cause B, A doesnt cause B), their priors would converge once the evidence is out. The only things that should be kept in mind is the priors could change.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz 18 Aug 2018
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation
      Replying to @dwindlinghandle

      As I said above: you often cannot collect enough observations to rule out a possibility.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Dwindler‏ @dwindlinghandle 18 Aug 2018
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation
      Replying to @Plinz

      Yes, the answer may not be yes/no. Your probability value would become your prior.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz 18 Aug 2018
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation
      Replying to @dwindlinghandle

      If your null hypothesis is full independence, you might never collect enough evidence to leave it behind, if the factor is small enough, so your priors matter. If you model successively more interdependences, you may even miss the path into really fat optima.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Dwindler‏ @dwindlinghandle 18 Aug 2018
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation
      Replying to @Plinz

      1. What do you mean by "null hypothesis is full independence"? Could you explain? 2. I think priors would matter in chaotic systems. But here ofcourse, choosing one's prior "wisely and cautiously", becomes the necessary thing.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz 19 Aug 2018
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation
      Replying to @dwindlinghandle

      1. If you assume that vaccines cannot impair brain development (causally independent variables), and in 0.1% of children they do, your sample size may never be large enough to force you to change your null hypothesis, and you would miss the effect.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz 19 Aug 2018
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation
      Replying to @Plinz

      2. “Carefully” means that there is a mathematically optimal way from counting all the bits on your interface to the universe. If you deviate from it, your world model is more likely to be wrong.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Dr Anne Cregan‏ @AnneCregan 19 Aug 2018
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation
      Replying to @Plinz

      So Joscha, what signs would show us the end times are IMMINENT. PM me please this one #ForReal

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz 20 Aug 2018
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation
      Replying to @AnneCregan

      Watch for signs that you have been born, it heralds imminent death within a few decades.

      6:43 AM - 20 Aug 2018 from Berlin, Germany
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2020 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Imprint
        • Cookies
        • Ads info