Understanding the world based on useful beliefs that are not entirely truthful is a confusion. Acting on truthful beliefs that are not entirely useful is a confusion.
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Replying to @Plinz
The reasoning that one can change their belief based on its utility (e.g. Pascal's wager) has always pained me. People shouldn't (and I'd even say, can't) change their beliefs at whim - each belief must fit into the web of other beliefs.
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Replying to @chandlersquires
The problem with Pascal’s wager is that it does not correctly quantify the confidence that following policy X yields positive instead of negative reward (in the absence of complete absence of evidence).
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Replying to @Plinz
I agree with the argument's premise that a false negative is much more costly than a false positive in this case. What I don't agree with is the possibility that one can change their belief in response to that calculation
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Replying to @chandlersquires
Yes, but the thing you agree with is wrong and a common reason for that affects the thing you don’t agree with.
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Replying to @Plinz
What consequence of falsely believing in a god is as bad as eternal suffering?
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Replying to @chandlersquires
God might discard you if you form beliefs based on improper evidence (like stuff you read and misunderstood in an archairc manual for running a belligerent desert tribe).
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Replying to @chandlersquires
Pascal‘s wager means that someone told you you have an uncle in Nigeria you are still unaware of, and he left you a box that is going to arrive at your doorstep if you wire 50,000 to his attorney, and the box is full of gold and not full of ebola.
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Replying to @Plinz
The correct action is based on your prior - if you're already convinced about the uncle beforehand, you're pretty sure you'll be missing out. The most frustrating aspect of Pascal's wager is that the action recommended is changing the prior
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Choosing adequate models is always part of choosing the correct action.
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Replying to @Plinz
Good point, the action would still be incorrect. I meant rational under uncertainty. But that just pushes the point of irrationality back to the model-forming process
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