Understanding the world based on useful beliefs that are not entirely truthful is a confusion. Acting on truthful beliefs that are not entirely useful is a confusion.
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The correct action is based on your prior - if you're already convinced about the uncle beforehand, you're pretty sure you'll be missing out. The most frustrating aspect of Pascal's wager is that the action recommended is changing the prior
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Choosing adequate models is always part of choosing the correct action.
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