The reasoning that one can change their belief based on its utility (e.g. Pascal's wager) has always pained me. People shouldn't (and I'd even say, can't) change their beliefs at whim - each belief must fit into the web of other beliefs.
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The problem with Pascal’s wager is that it does not correctly quantify the confidence that following policy X yields positive instead of negative reward (in the absence of complete absence of evidence).
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I'm wondering how small the intersection of true & useful beliefs is, for most people in most situations, in comparison to those other two. My suspicion is that not being "confused" in this sense is a luxury few people have.
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"The real test of knowledge is not truth, but utility"
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Isn't "Truth" always contextual/temporal/relative? Could it be that today's truthful is tomorrow's confusion?
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