This thread by @fchollet, applied to Bayesianism, is the basic counterargument to the last ten years of “AGI as existential threat”.https://twitter.com/fchollet/status/1010988618993655808 …
There exists a wide range of estimates on the effective complexity of brains. Picking the one that supports your nonexistence claim best may mean that you are not maximizing the probability that you are correct.
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Assuming you're not denying our best scientific evidence about neuron-level interaction, this seems like yet another argument, that relies upon "effective complexity". Can you tell me what "effective complexity" means?
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Individual neurons are fairly indeterministic. A large part of synaptic connectivity may just serve normalization. Effective complexity comes down to how many neurons we need to allocate, identify, learn and compute a particular function reliably enough.
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