This thread by @fchollet, applied to Bayesianism, is the basic counterargument to the last ten years of “AGI as existential threat”.https://twitter.com/fchollet/status/1010988618993655808 …
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This is a different argument that the one I was responding to. Your new argument relies on the idea that neuron-level response is "relatively simple". Our best knowledge of the brain suggests that it is, in fact, extremely complex.
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There exists a wide range of estimates on the effective complexity of brains. Picking the one that supports your nonexistence claim best may mean that you are not maximizing the probability that you are correct.
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