This thread by @fchollet, applied to Bayesianism, is the basic counterargument to the last ten years of “AGI as existential threat”.https://twitter.com/fchollet/status/1010988618993655808 …
I think that this is a nontrivial claim to make, even though most people would subscribe to it (and I share the intuition). But if you are concerned about AGI dangers, I don’t think it is good enough to make you feel safe.
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Is it reasonable to be afraid of something when there's no good reason to believe can happen?
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