This thread by @fchollet, applied to Bayesianism, is the basic counterargument to the last ten years of “AGI as existential threat”.https://twitter.com/fchollet/status/1010988618993655808 …
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I don't think that an ANN is a good paradigm to replicate something like a brain. But once you add external memory and suitable tool libraries, it is not even clear to me that an ANN could not learn the equivalent of the transition function of a brain, for instance.
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"once you add external memory and suitable tool libraries, it is not even clear to me that an ANN could not learn the equivalent of the transition function of a brain" is, again and unfortunately, science fiction. What are the reasons to believe this?
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"probably unrealistic" is, unfortunately, science fiction. Meanwhile Bayes itself (along with Decision theory) is internally consistent—no proof within the system will show its limits...
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Gary Marcus style arguments of innateness are probably not cutting it (he would have to show that evolutionary search somehow yielded results that cannot be efficiently replicated by any of the known algorithmic approaches).
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