I don't know enough about the academic/social side of this to bet, but intuitively I'd assign probability under 15% to possibilities 3 and 4. Thanks @browserdotsys for being specific!https://twitter.com/browserdotsys/status/1007264783710801920 …
Replying to @ESYudkowsky @browserdotsys
15% for next year or forever?
9:04 PM - 14 Jun 2018
from Cambridge, MA
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