"bulk of human knowledge is
…causal, not probabilistic"
grammar of stats is insufficient
Judea Pearl
ht @Plinz
"Cognition…also just another way of doing stats"https://twitter.com/TTIVanguard/status/1006524568457170945 …
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Jag Bhalla @NanoSalad maker Retweeted TTIVanguard
"bulk of human knowledge is
…causal, not probabilistic"
grammar of stats is insufficient
Judea Pearl
ht @Plinz
"Cognition…also just another way of doing stats"https://twitter.com/TTIVanguard/status/1006524568457170945 …
Jag Bhalla @NanoSalad maker added,
Causality is a mode of modeling a domain as separate, interacting systems, each characterized by its own transition function. I think of causal models as a class of statistical models.
as you know…for Pearl…causal models ≠ stats models…1 useful take…where causal structure known…we use it to trumps stats…
cc @GaryMarcus
If a model gives better predictions than a statistical model, it is a better statistical model.
it would seem that you would encompass literally everything into your definition of statistics, which makes what you say true but trivial, no?
It took me a long time to see it that way, so to me it is not trivial (I used to see it the same way as yourself, I think). I might also change my view, but it would require to change my understanding of the nature of representation and function approximation, I suppose.
may be slightly worse…it's true & unhelpful… call it the Turing Trap ~futile universalization…Turing machine alone ≠ real problems solved…need problem-specific functions & algorithms
No, there is a deep question: to model and interact with the universe, is it sufficient to properly count bits, or do we have to add some secret sauce? This is what Gary Marcus’ innateness comes down to, I think.
agree there's a very deep question here…& I fear current concepts leave gaps …I take Gary's secret sauce to be causal rules/patterns…vary by domain…eg Newton's cradle you don't need stats…can use causal structure
I think you don't see what the Schmidhuber has been seeing for many years (I know it is embarrassing that the madman is always right), unless you consider how causal structure is represented in a brain like substrate, and how it may get there.
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