The mind of the psychics is a super resolution algorithm. They hallucinate subtle details until the most consistent total image is generated, and their success depends disproportionally on the cases where it works.
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Replying to @Plinz
What do you mean by "works" ? There are many hallucinations possible. What defines a working one from a non-working one?
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Replying to @vakibs
The mind of the sane person maximizes the chance to get reliable predictions. The psychic maximizes the chance to get impressive predictions.
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Replying to @Plinz
Impressive ? What is impressive if it is not reliable ?
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Replying to @vakibs
If you were to tell people with full confidence what their greatest fear is, you will probably impress 20% of them immensely. And if you are very perceptive and experienced and not very biased, perhaps you can guess it right even 60% of the time?
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Replying to @Plinz
I see. But why should a mystic care for other people ?
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Replying to @vakibs
Good psychics are not mystics, because mystics tend to bias their super-resolution generation towards the mysterious. Good psychics strive to minimize bias. Bad ones try to maximize the absolute number of people they can sweep off their feet.
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There are two parameters to this: one is the required confidence to add new parameters to my model. Setting this high does not only make my model more likely wrong, but also more subtle, so I can often infer more truth. The other is the weight of the null hypothesis (bias) itself
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