Stats people, help me out. For all the people like @gelliottmorris making probabilistic forecasts of winning back the House, updated to three significant figures... how are you supposed to validate those models when you only get to observe one outcome?
(I'm not asking this adversarially, but honestly). There's such a small set of past elections, how do you get the necessary level of confidence in your probabilistic model? Especially as these are not independent trials.
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Scientifically speaking, we use error in past forecasts to say what is likely this year. Forecasting is also an art though: has a lot to do with validating what we already know about politics
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Thank you for the answer!
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