Stats people, help me out. For all the people like @gelliottmorris making probabilistic forecasts of winning back the House, updated to three significant figures... how are you supposed to validate those models when you only get to observe one outcome?
I asked @gelliottmorris about this before, but I think he's muted me or something
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He must think that you have a bad case of "probabilistic misinterpretation-itis."
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Clever Validated by using the model to predict past elections. IE use method trained on 2008/2012 data to predict and evaluate 2014, 2016
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