Ok, fun! I like testable claims. Let's see, there's seven such districts, four of which have only one (incumbent) Republicans running as of now (which would seem to make Ds getting "locked out" pretty difficult): CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, CA-45. So that leaves CA-39, CA-48, CA-49?https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/991012200054747138 …
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So let's see...I feel like this is probably the least likely to happen in CA-48, where Rohrabacher is running for re-election, like, is Scott Baugh going to beat every Democrat? IDK if that's the likeliest?pic.twitter.com/3sE5HrnNTm
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Here's CA-49, obviously Issa isn't running anymore, so you have four Democrats and four Republicans who raised non-trivial amounts of money. I don't know if that's the same as "likely to get a non-trivial number of votes" though. Every D beat every R in fundraising I guess?pic.twitter.com/XkDiGrntP2
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And here's CA-39, again, Royce isn't running anymore, so you have six Democrats and three Republicans who raised at least $300,000. Again, you'd need two of those Republicans to beat ALL SIX Democrats. No idea how likely that is.pic.twitter.com/hlDbzdg6BQ
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(Or IDK, maybe someone will do well without raising that much. That does happen!)
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For comparison this is what the fundraising numbers looked like the one time Democrats were "locked out" (kind of--the Republican vote DID add up to more than the Democratic vote in the primary), CA-31 in 2012. Two of the top three fundraisers were strong Republicans...pic.twitter.com/1UKPvVuKCk
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Replying to @xenocryptsite
a prediction: the story of the CA primaries might be Dem turnout/enthusiasm. Trump is really unpopular here, for national but also very local reasons. D enthusiasm will possibly swamp the clowncar at the house as well as gubernatorial level. maybe we’ll see multiple D v D races
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Replying to @UgaritNoosphere @Catscatscatz
Yeah I wonder if people are "over-learning" from the strange CA-31 result which barely happened in the first place and required this very particular combination of things (two strong Republicans, I guess a weak leading Democrat, and also other Democrats). But easy to say now!
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I think it's the same dynamic that leads journalists to obsess about Presidential elections going to the House, or a convention-floor battle over who wins the primary.
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Replying to @Pinboard @Catscatscatz
Yes I was just saying to someone, "will Ds end up locked out of top-two" combines Political Twitter's two favorite things: 1. Fretting/gloating about Democrats blowing it, and 2. Nerdy wrangling about rules and loopholes.
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(This does not mean it's impossible, I mean, I once would have said the same thing about "PV/EC split elects Donald Trump".)
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