Data that point to a good midterm election cycle for Democrats:
generic congressional ballot polling
presidential approval polling
House retirements
special elections
enthusiasm gap + shifts among white/educated/women voters
Data that don’t:

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It has become more and more clear that Democrats are favored to win a large victory in the national popular vote in November. What requires heavy modeling and lots of thinking is whether they can jump the ~7% hurdle they need to win back a majority of seats with those votes.
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As of now (very early in the 2018 cycle) there are two public quantitative forecasts for Dem prospects in the House. Mine (D: 62%) and PluralVote (D: 52%) https://www.pluralvote.com/article/house-forecast … Qual forecasts have the House somewhere between Lean R and Tossup (closer to Lean R, I'd say)
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Serious question: how do you test the validity of such a forecast after the fact? In other words, how do you decide PluralVote was more correct (or less) about their probabilistic forecast in April 2018, and update your models?
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