“This is something that hasn’t happened in our modern era of observations” which is less than 150 years… Fake math! https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/08/31/harvey-is-a-1000-year-flood-event-unprecedented-in-scale/ …
-
Show this thread
-
we have maybe 150 years of reliable data about weather in the central and west US. Need more epistemic humility in forecasting
3 replies 2 retweets 12 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @Pinboard
I suspect the people who actually do this shit DO have quite a bit of humility. The problem is in understanding how squishy the models are.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
Replying to @mhkohne
that’s a very good point. The modeling uncertainty gets squeezed out at every layer
7:32 PM - 31 Aug 2017
0 replies
0 retweets
0 likes
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.