Trump calls this a ‘500-year flood’. Some other notable 500 year floods happened in 2011, 2009, 2008, 1993, and 1927. Modeling is hard.
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It's a model based on the regularity of larger data set. Not perfect, but perhaps Bayesian. https://www.ndsu.edu/pubweb/~sainieid/group/100-year.htm …
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