The hardware is no longer tracking an exponential curve, Elon. Look at your laptop. The party is ending.https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/889749519021121536 …
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Replying to @Pinboard
AI hardware != laptop hardware. TPUs etc are big enough improvements that continued exponential plausible (though certainly not guaranteed)
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Replying to @nbouscal
I understand, but the slowdown in moving to smaller process nodes is global and will soon put the brakes on everyone
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Replying to @Pinboard
Sure, the exponential has always been guaranteed to end at some point, but I don't think it's accurate to say that it already has
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Replying to @nbouscal
it’s certainly the case for consumer devices. Clock speeds are flat or even dropping as device makers optimize for power use
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Replying to @Pinboard
Yep, agreed, sorry if I didn't make that clear. My point is that AI is a separate domain and still seeing significant hardware improvements
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Replying to @nbouscal
I agree! But people like Musk want to draw their exponentials out to the 2040 singularity, and it’s not happening
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Replying to @Pinboard
Agreed it won't stay exponential til 2040, but don't think his arguments require that. But that's a longer conversation ;)
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yeah, for sure. Also don’t even begin to fathom what he means by exponential software, but I am not a galactic brain
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Maybe it means software writing software. Recursive feedback can turn exponential in a hurry.
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